The GDP figures released today got me thinking about how unusual the economy is right now. And when I hear talk of Joe Hockey about “how much better we would be if we had a good government” I got to wondering if we have ever had it better?
So here’s a bit of a reality check for Hockey and others.
The last time we had annual GDP Growth of above 3.5% and the RBA’s trimmed mean inflation gauge below 2.5% (it’s currently 2.2%) was in September 1999 when GDP Growth was 3.7% and the Trimmed Mean was 2.1%.
But unemployment then was 6.6%. In March 2012 it was 5.1% (trend terms).
So I wondered, how many times in my lifetime (I turned 40 last month) has Australia had a quarter of GDP growth showing greater than 3.5% annual growth, the trimmed mean inflation below 2.5% and unemployment below 5.5%?
Well since 1978 (I only have the figures for all 3 back to 1978) – NEVER
I’ll wager we’ve not had it since the 1960s as the 1970s was not a decade of what you would call low inflation.
Yep. What a terrible government.
| Inflation (Trimmed Mean) | GDP Annual Growth | Unemployment (trend) | |
| Dec-1978 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Mar-1979 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 6.4 |
| Jun-1979 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Sep-1979 | 10.1 | 3.1 | 6.2 |
| Dec-1979 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 6.1 |
| Mar-1980 | 10.8 | 1.7 | 6.1 |
| Jun-1980 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 6.2 |
| Sep-1980 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 6.1 |
| Dec-1980 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| Mar-1981 | 9.3 | 3.1 | 5.7 |
| Jun-1981 | 10.1 | 4.2 | 5.6 |
| Sep-1981 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 5.8 |
| Dec-1981 | 10.6 | 3.5 | 6.0 |
| Mar-1982 | 10.8 | 2.3 | 6.3 |
| Jun-1982 | 12.5 | 1.5 | 6.7 |
| Sep-1982 | 11 | -1.1 | 7.7 |
| Dec-1982 | 9.6 | -2.3 | 9.1 |
| Mar-1983 | 10.7 | -2.5 | 10.0 |
| Jun-1983 | 10 | -3.4 | 10.3 |
| Sep-1983 | 8.5 | 0.5 | 10.1 |
| Dec-1983 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 9.6 |
| Mar-1984 | 7 | 6.9 | 9.3 |
| Jun-1984 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| Sep-1984 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 8.7 |
| Dec-1984 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 8.6 |
| Mar-1985 | 5.7 | 4.2 | 8.5 |
| Jun-1985 | 6.4 | 5.7 | 8.4 |
| Sep-1985 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 8.0 |
| Dec-1985 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 7.9 |
| Mar-1986 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 7.9 |
| Jun-1986 | 8.6 | 2.0 | 8.0 |
| Sep-1986 | 8.8 | 1.0 | 8.3 |
| Dec-1986 | 9.2 | 2.3 | 8.3 |
| Mar-1987 | 8.9 | 2.7 | 8.3 |
| Jun-1987 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 8.2 |
| Sep-1987 | 8.2 | 5.9 | 8.0 |
| Dec-1987 | 7.5 | 6.2 | 7.8 |
| Mar-1988 | 7.2 | 5.8 | 7.6 |
| Jun-1988 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 7.3 |
| Sep-1988 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 6.9 |
| Dec-1988 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 6.8 |
| Mar-1989 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 6.4 |
| Jun-1989 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
| Sep-1989 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 5.9 |
| Dec-1989 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 6.0 |
| Mar-1990 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 6.2 |
| Jun-1990 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 6.7 |
| Sep-1990 | 6.5 | 0.3 | 7.4 |
| Dec-1990 | 6.6 | 1.0 | 8.1 |
| Mar-1991 | 5.7 | -1.1 | 9.1 |
| Jun-1991 | 5 | -1.5 | 9.7 |
| Sep-1991 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 10.0 |
| Dec-1991 | 3.7 | -1.1 | 10.3 |
| Mar-1992 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 10.6 |
| Jun-1992 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 10.9 |
| Sep-1992 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 11.0 |
| Dec-1992 | 2 | 4.5 | 11.0 |
| Mar-1993 | 2.1 | 4.5 | 10.9 |
| Jun-1993 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 10.9 |
| Sep-1993 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 10.9 |
| Dec-1993 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 10.7 |
| Mar-1994 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 10.3 |
| Jun-1994 | 2.3 | 4.8 | 9.8 |
| Sep-1994 | 2.3 | 5.9 | 9.3 |
| Dec-1994 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 9.0 |
| Mar-1995 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 8.6 |
| Jun-1995 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 8.3 |
| Sep-1995 | 3 | 3.4 | 8.4 |
| Dec-1995 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 8.4 |
| Mar-1996 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 8.4 |
| Jun-1996 | 3 | 4.1 | 8.5 |
| Sep-1996 | 2.5 | 3.8 | 8.6 |
| Dec-1996 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 8.7 |
| Mar-1997 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 8.7 |
| Jun-1997 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 8.6 |
| Sep-1997 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 8.3 |
| Dec-1997 | 1.9 | 4.7 | 8.0 |
| Mar-1998 | 1.7 | 5.8 | 7.8 |
| Jun-1998 | 1.9 | 3.8 | 7.8 |
| Sep-1998 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 7.7 |
| Dec-1998 | 1.7 | 5.3 | 7.4 |
| Mar-1999 | 1.7 | 4.7 | 7.1 |
| Jun-1999 | 1.7 | 4.5 | 6.9 |
| Sep-1999 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 6.8 |
| Dec-1999 | 2.3 | 3.5 | 6.6 |
| Mar-2000 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 6.5 |
| Jun-2000 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 6.2 |
| Sep-2000 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 6.1 |
| Dec-2000 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 6.3 |
| Mar-2001 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 6.6 |
| Jun-2001 | 3 | 1.6 | 6.9 |
| Sep-2001 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 7.0 |
| Dec-2001 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 6.9 |
| Mar-2002 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 6.5 |
| Jun-2002 | 3 | 4.5 | 6.3 |
| Sep-2002 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 6.3 |
| Dec-2002 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 6.1 |
| Mar-2003 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 6.1 |
| Jun-2003 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 6.0 |
| Sep-2003 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 5.8 |
| Dec-2003 | 2.8 | 4.0 | 5.6 |
| Mar-2004 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 |
| Jun-2004 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 5.5 |
| Sep-2004 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 5.3 |
| Dec-2004 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2005 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.1 |
| Jun-2005 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 5.0 |
| Sep-2005 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 5.0 |
| Dec-2005 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2006 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 5.0 |
| Jun-2006 | 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Sep-2006 | 3.1 | 2.3 | 4.6 |
| Dec-2006 | 3 | 3.2 | 4.6 |
| Mar-2007 | 2.6 | 4.6 | 4.4 |
| Jun-2007 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.3 |
| Sep-2007 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.3 |
| Dec-2007 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| Mar-2008 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 4.1 |
| Jun-2008 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 4.2 |
| Sep-2008 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| Dec-2008 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 |
| Mar-2009 | 4 | 0.9 | 5.5 |
| Jun-2009 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 5.8 |
| Sep-2009 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 5.7 |
| Dec-2009 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 5.5 |
| Mar-2010 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 5.3 |
| Jun-2010 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 5.2 |
| Sep-2010 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 5.2 |
| Dec-2010 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 5.1 |
| Mar-2011 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 4.9 |
| Jun-2011 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 5.0 |
| Sep-2011 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 5.2 |
| Dec-2011 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 5.2 |
| Mar-2012 | 2.2 | 4.3 | 5.1 |
Note the trimmed mean figure only goes back to 1983, prior to that I use CPI (all via the RBA and ABS)
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