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It’s all downhill from here…

The big game brought a big comeback and a threw the whole Premiership race open… well open for two teams at least.

At least this weekend we get back to 8 games. The split round might be nice for players resting injuries, but it is bloody boring for the fans.

With 9 rounds to go and a theoretical 12 Games plus percentage to make the finals, it means “theoretically” everyone can make it. But in theory winning 6 out of your last 9 would be doing pretty good (that return would average 14 wins in a season). That means all those teams with less than 6 wins now really would need to pull something out of the box to make it from here. This means it is probably down to 9 teams to decide the top 8, but I’ll give Essendon another week because their percentage is much better than North’s.

Either way, I don’t see there being much excitement in Round 22 to see who makes the finals – it’ll all be about where the sides within the 8 finish.

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Should	finish	in	the	top	four
	1	2↑	St Kilda	10-3	Wow! That’s how you do it. And with Riewoldt set to come back, the Saints are looking very good.
	2	1↓	Geelong	10-3	At half time the Cats looked to be doing it easy. How the hell could they only kick 3 points in the entire second half? North Melbourne this week will feel their wrath.
	3	3↔	Collingwood	9-3-1	No worries there. Malthouse the fool thinks Collingwood has been hard done by with the draw. Not sure if he can complain about paying the Eagles next.
The	top	8	looks	good
	4	5↑	Bulldogs	8-5	A good win over in the west. The Hawks this week faces up to be a huge match (and yes, yet another “8 point” game).
	5	4↓	Hawthorn	7-6	Buddy hell. It’s not fair someone can be that talented. Six wins in a row, but now they have the Bulldogs, Cats, Lions and Saints. We’ll know in 4 weeks if they are the real deal.
	6	7↑	Fremantle	9-4	An Excellent away win by the Dockers – especially coming off 2 losses. With Port Richmond, and Melbourne up next they could be 12-4 and almost a top 4 certainty.
Percentage	will	be	a	help
	7	6↓	Carlton	7-6	The Blues lost their ruckman, and some credibility with the loss against the Dockers. Top four looks gone.
	8	8↔	Sydney	7-6	The Swans just don’t like playing the Pies. Now they face a surprisingly confident Tigers. Must win.
Can’t	afford	any	more	stuff	ups
	9	10↑	North Melbourne	7-6	North beat the completely out of it Port. Geelong up next for the reality check.
	10	9↓	Essendon	5-8	The Bombers were honest but lacked a Buddy. With the Crows, Demons, Eagles and North up next, they could be 9-8.
Not	a	chance	in	hell
	11	11↔	Brisbane	5-8	Well it’s all gone so very bad for the Lions. (Remember they were 4-0). Won’t make the finals from here – especially with Carlton, Saints, Hawks and Cats up next – they’re good things to be 5-12.
	12	14↓	Adelaide	4-9	The Crows played like they wanted to win. If they beat the Bombers this week their season will start to look like it wasn’t completely awful.
	13	12↑	Melbourne	4-8-1	The Demons played well for one quarter, but for the rest the Crows had them covered. They haven’t won since round 9. They play the Saints this week…
	14	15↑	Richmond	3-10	Three out of the last four! This is a young Tigers side that are learning how to win. The Swans won’t be feeling as happy about playing them as they did when they faced them back in round 3.
	15	13↓	Port Adelaide	5-8	Six losses in a row –and now they face Freo at Subiaco, then Collingwood and then the Bulldogs – they must be a good chance to make it nine.
	16	16↔	West Coast	3-10	Five losses in a row, and with Collingwood up next, it should be six, before they face Wooden Spoon challengers, Adelaide.

With half the season over, it’s time to sort through the 16 teams and see who’s where.

By my reckoning five teams should feel pretty sure they’ll play in the finals, three that look safeish – mostly because of good percentages, and four more are on the precipice (the other four can start thinking about the footy trip at the end of the year).

Next week is the split round, so there won’t be a power ranking till the 28th (keep your applause to a minimum, please)

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
Safe
	1	1↔	Geelong	10-2	Boom! Anyone thinking the Cats are not hungry for two in a row better get used to being wrong.
	2	4↑	St Kilda	9-3	A strong win in the west. The Saints look to have regained balance. The GF replay against Geelong after the break will see how sure that balance is.
	3	2↓	Collingwood	8-3-1	They drew a game in which they kicked 9.22 and had 10 more scoring shots than the Demons. Sydney, Eagles and Port give them a relatively easy start tot he second half, before hitting the Saints.
Should	get	to	September
	4	6↑	Hawthorn	6-6	Five in a row and doing fine. After the break the real season begins – Bombers, Bulldogs, Cats and Lions. We’ll know plenty after that.
	5	7↑	Bulldogs	7-5	In the classic 8 point game the Bulldogs did it in style. Eagles, Hawks, Carlton and Port after the break should see them at worst on 9-7.
Percentage	will	be	a	help
	6	3↓	Carlton	7-5	Carlton continue their inconsistent year with a loss in a game they should have won. They’ll need to win these type of games in the 2nd half if they want to finish top 4 – Freo, Lions, Bulldogs and Swans up next. Win three or forget the top 4.
	7	5↓	Fremantle	8-4	Two losses in a row, but this was the bigger reality check. Still look finals bound, but the top 4 is a bigger question. Carlton, Port, Richmond and Melbourne should give them a chance to start he second half with some wins.
	8	10↑	Sydney	7-5	A very good win that give the Swans some momentum. After the break: Pies, Tigers, Roos and Blues. The later two games will be the big indicators.
Can’t	afford	any	stuff	ups
	9	8↓	Essendon	5-7	For a half they looked around about the mark, but then they were put to the sword. After the break they have Hawks, Crows and Demons. Will need to win at least two.
	10	11↑	North Melbourne	6-6	A huge win for the Roos, that keeps them in the picture. The next three of Port, Geelong and Sydney will be all good tests for how they’ll end up.
	11	9↓	Brisbane	5-7	A bad loss – and one that casts a huge pall on their finals chances. Richmond, Carlton, Saints and Hawks offer a superb test. Win at least three, or forget it.
	12	14↑	Melbourne	4-7-1	A tough result for the second time this year against the Pies – though at least they got 2 points. Now they don’t need to worry about percentage, but they need some wins. Crows at AAMI, Saints, Essendon and Freo (at Subiaco) doesn’t suggest an easy start to the second half.
Not	a	chance	in	hell
	13	12↓	Port Adelaide	5-7	Five in a row and looking lousy. From 5-2 to 5-7. And with the Roos, Fremantle, Pies and Bulldogs up next, things are not looking to improve.
	14	13↓	Adelaide	3-9	Not good enough. Haven’t been all year, but now it is officially over. Demons, Essendon, Eagles and Cats up next. It could get ugly (Socceroos v Germany ugly).
	15	16↑	Richmond	2-10	Yeah it was against the Eagles in Melbourne, but it was still a great win, and Jack Reiwoldt at pick number 13 is looking the steal of the 2006 draft.
	16	15↓	West Coast	3-9	Hmm. The Eagles look a long way from the finals – at least 2 years away. They start the second half with the Bulldogs, Pies, Crows and Essendon. The Crows game will be the only one of interest – if only to see who may challenge for the wooden spoon.

I think it’s pretty clear that Geelong will play in the Grand Final. But who is most likely to be their opponent? Who will make the finals?

Back after Round 2 I wrote that Melbourne, Adelaide, North,  Richmond, West Coast were no chance and that Essendon and Port were unlikely. Of those seven I’ll move North in to the unlikely category, but really no one is in the “will play in the finals” list. The problem is with seven teams on either 5 or 6 wins, it is still very much up for grabs. The top 5 look safe (though Freo wouldn’t want its match against Adelaide to be an arbiter of things to come).

But then you have 3 spots and seven teams on 5 or 6 wins fighting to get it.

With just over half the season still to go, there’s still a long way to go before we find out which three will make it – at this stage it’s hard to even pick the favourites.

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
	1	1↔	Geelong	9-2	Look it wasn’t great, but a win in Perth is still something you take and then grab your boarding pass and fly home content. They face the unpredictable Essendon before getting a week off to prepare for the GF replay.
	2	2↔	Collingwood	8-3	A big win by the Pies, though it was not exactly a definitive statement. Now they face a slumping Melbourne before the always tricky match against the Swans after the break.
	3	4↑	Carlton	7-4	A dominating performance by the Blues. They now have North and Freo to go before the break.
	4	5↑	St Kilda	8-3	A pretty easy win for the Saints (it was against Richmond after all). Now they travel West to face a Dockers side revved up after a bad game.
	5	3↓	Fremantle	8-3	Well now, that wasn’t meant to happen. The Dockers hit a big Crow’s speed hump. Their next two games of the Saints and Carlton are massive tests.
	6	7↑	Hawthorn	5-6	The Hawks keep the bandwagon going. Now they have to beat a Crows team who probably think they’re back on track.
	7	6↓	Bulldogs	6-5	The Bulldogs played 1 quarter of footy against the Pies, and came up 2 goals short. A must win if there ever was against the Lions this week. This side was not meant to be 6-6 at the halfway stage…
	8	8↔	Essendon	5-6	A tough loss, in tough conditions. The Bombers now face the Cats, and then a desperate Hawks.
	9	9↔	Brisbane	5-6	Hmm. I give up trying to tip this mob. They play the Bulldogs this week in stereotypical 8 point game. Must win.
	10	11↓	Sydney	6-5	The Swans got up in a great game against the Bombers – which keeps them in positive territory.They face Port before the week break to get ready for the annual Collingwood money spinner.
	11	13↑	North Melbourne	5-6	They nearly blew a 6 goals half time lead. They have Carlton and Port before the break. Lose both, and the chances of finals will start to slip.
	12	10↓	Port Adelaide	5-6	That’s 4 losses in a row now for Port. Lose against Sydney this week and it’ll officially time to start to panic.
	13	14↑	Adelaide	3-8	Finally! The Crows played Freo in the manner we all expected them to play in Round 1. They face the Hawks in Tassie to find out which team can officially forget about 2010.
	14	12↓	Melbourne	4-7	The Demons certainly have had the gloss knocked off them. Collingwood on the annual Queen’s Birthday money spinner might give a good indicator of what to expect in the 2nd half of the season.
	15	15↔	West Coast	3-8	Hey they were honest –they even got the lead a few times. But no one really thought they would win. Must beat the Tigers this week. But it’s no certainty.
	16	16↔	Richmond	1-10	Riewoldt is a star, this much we know. But is there anyone else to help him out?

This week will see the last game to be played by the Crows’ Tyson Edwards. One of those players that every supporter would like to have in their side: honest and good week in week out. Will he make the Hall of Fame? Last year I weighed up his chances and had him on the fence. The 320 games should get him in, but the lack of an All-Australian selection counts against him. But as I also wrote last year, the way that the Hall of Fame is currently chosen means it’s all rather meaningless.

This week showed a few things – first that Geelong is the best team in the league (but you knew that already). Second, that Freo is the real deal and will play in the finals (ok, we knew that as well). Thirdly, that Collingwood and the Bulldogs are susceptible and no certainty to play in the Grand Final (yeah, I guess we knew one too). Fourthly, that Hawthorn is still a chance to make the finals, so too are the Lions, and that the Saints are nowhere near as good as they were pre-Riewoldt’s injury, but they’re still pretty damn good (umm, yeah alright they’re points that were known also before this week…)

OK, look this week didn’t teach us anything knew. Except that Brisbane, Essendon, Port and the Bulldogs are bloody annoying team to have to tip.
And yes, I know – we knew that already.

So let’s get to the Power rankings this week – no change in the top three – though next week’s matches could upset a few things- especially if Collingwood goes down to the Bulldogs.  The big movers are the Hawks, who I’ve put into the top 8. With 4 teams on 5-5, this week’s game of Sydney-Essendon, Hawks-Port and North-Brisbane will start to separate the top and bottom halves.

	Rank	LW	Team	Record	Comment
	1	1↔	Geelong	8-2	Far and away the stand out team of the comp. They have won 30 out of a possible 40 quarters – the next best?  Freo on 26.
	2	2↔	Collingwood	7-3	Two losses in a row mean this week’s match against the Bulldogs is shaping as massive test – an an 8 point game in terms of making the top 4 (and also to see which team will start to panic).
	3	3↔	Fremantle	8-2	Whooshka! A 10 goal third quarter put North to the sword. They now get to beat up the Crows in Tyson Edwards’ farewell game.
	4	5↑	Carlton	6-4	Gibbs had a massive 35 touches, 12 marks and 1 goal. My only sadness is I didn’t pick him as my fantasy footy captain this week. With Melbourne and North up next, they should go meet Freo the week after on 8-4.
	5	6↑	St Kilda	7-3	Their last quarter was just brutal – 5 goals in 13 minutes, that had the Crows looking as hopeless as everyone expected them to be.
	6	4↓	Bulldogs	6-4	OK something went wrong there. Is it the end of Akermanis? There won’t be too many saying “I hope not”. If they lose this week, making the top 4 will start to look beyond them.
	7	9↑	Hawthorn	4-6	The Hawks led all day and nearly lost it. Their season is still alive – but there’s no margin for error. Port, Crows and Bombers are up before the break. They area big chance to be 7-6!
	8	8↔	Essendon	5-5	Essendon are playing the spoiling role quite nicely. But with 3 wins in a row, they’ll go to Sydney chock full of confidence.
	9	12↑	Brisbane	5-5	Where this win came from I don’t know – but given Fev’s penchant for kicking goals out of his bum, they might do well to look there.
	10	7↓	Port Adelaide	5-5	Wow. Yeah it was underwater, and yeah they have injuries, but only 30 points against Richmond?? Their next three are Hawks, Swans and North. Must win at least two.
	11	10↓	Sydney	5-5	A tough loss at home. The reality of the season has hit the Swans as they have played better opponents. They face Essendon and Port before the annual game against the Pies in the mid-year break.
	12	11↓	Melbourne	4-6	Honest in defeat, but in defeat they were. They have Carlton and Collingwood before the break. Looking 4-8 in the eye.
	13	13↔	North Melbourne	4-6	Never really in it against the Dockers. They now face the Lions in a match that will have ramifications come September and the race to see who gets into the eight.
	14	14↔	Adelaide	2-8	They really were good for two quarters – hard, tough, great marking, good kicking. But you can only keep up a charade for so long. The last quarter fade out showed the Crows for who they really are.
	15	15↔	West Coast	3-7	For all the raves about Naitanui, the last few weeks have not been good. I don’t think he’ll ever be a week in week out great player – more a flash of genius that frustrates.
	16	16↔	Richmond	1-9	OK, who tipped this??? And as a reward for their first win, they get to play the Saints. Oh joy.